China is at a crossroads
The vast empire must decide whether it wants to appear on the world stage as a ruthless autocracy or as a responsible player. The West must not rely on the principle of hope.
I started with a column on China, and today I would like to close the round of my comments in this section with a column on China. Three and a half years ago, I pointed out China’s clear strategic orientation in its economic development, captured in the concept of „state capitalism“, and how it poses a serious threat to Switzerland and to Europe, and that this requires a decisive China strategy in response.
Today, ninety columns later, the world presents itself as even more complex than before. This interim period has borne witness to the USA’s trade war with China, the Corona pandemic and now Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. China still has its eyes set on being a great power by 2049. But the uncertainty of its leadership in the face of these global events and the consequences of this on China’s domestic perception are palpable. China is at a crossroads.
Disengagement exposed as a fairy tale
Until a few years ago, Chinese dominance in technological matters was considered a matter of course. This, combined with the fact that both China and Russia had almost unbeatable armed forces, both physical and digital, some thought the triumph of autocracy over democracy was already sealed.
Today, this is no longer so clear. Surprised by the weakness of the Russian army, people are no longer simply dazzled by Chinese parades. Moreover, it is becoming clear that American cyber defence is also not in its infancy. Likewise, it was believed that China could economically isolate itself at any moment and without any problems. Today we learn that, as a net importer of energy and food, it is very much affected by the supply bottlenecks triggered by the war in Ukraine.
Further affected by the Corona pandemic, the Middle Kingdom’s growth prospects are plummeting. This must concern the Communist Party much more than Putin, since the legitimacy of Chinese rule has always depended on its ability to feed its people. The Russian leadership could always focus on arms spending and still does and leave its population with no choice but to accept this course of action.
Youth wants to be able to move freely again
While Putin bans any opposition from the streets by threatening with drastic punishments, China, despite unequivocal appeals, has to deal with a demanding youth that wants leisure time instead of work and independence instead of family.
The Chinese leadership also faces resistance to its zero-covide strategy, which was long hailed as exemplary and superior. Because of their denigration of Western vaccines, older people in particular are inadequately vaccinated, while the employed and the young want to be able to move freely again.
Finally, the Chinese leadership has not yet found its position in the war in Ukraine. Tied by the „boundless friendship“ with Russia that was sealed only before the invasion, it does not condemn the aggressor – and speaks, if at all, along the lines of Russian propaganda.
Conversely, Putin is violating all the principles that define Chinese foreign policy: peaceful coexistence, respect for national sovereignty, territorial integrity and non-interference in internal affairs – principles that the Chinese foreign minister reiterated at the Munich Security Conference a few days before Russia’s attack.
West must take strategic precautions
China will have to decide how it wants to take up its global position: as an intransigent and unscrupulous autocracy that accepts global conflict, or as a globally responsible and committed actor that actively contributes to the self-promoted vision of „harmony in the community of humanity’s destiny“. The surprising unity of the West on both sides should also make China realise that a division of the world cannot simply be imposed, not even with strength.
According to psychologists, both Putin and Xi are struggling for recognition by the West – if not through prestige, then through force. China still has the chance to gain respect; Putin has squandered it for himself and Russia. For this reason, too, the West should beware of relying on the principle of hope, as it did in the case of Russia. Instead, it is important to take strategic precautions – in terms of both economic and security policy. This must be one of the priorities for Europe and also for Switzerland.
With this column, political and economic philosopher Katja Gentinetta says goodbye to this column at NZZ am Sonntag. We thank her warmly for her insightful comments.